Analysis of Trades and Tips for Trading the Japanese Yen

The test of the 150.06 level coincided with a moment when the MACD indicator had moved significantly above the zero mark, which limited upward potential for the pair. For this reason, I did not buy the dollar. Shortly thereafter, another test of 150.06 occurred when the MACD was in the overbought area, which triggered Scenario #2 for selling. As a result, the pair fell by about 20 points, after which the pressure subsided. Key events for the second half of the day include the issuance of building permits and speeches from Federal Reserve members. With positive data and a cautious tone from policymakers, another attempt at a dollar rise against the Japanese yen could be expected. As for the intraday strategy, I plan to act by following Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, I plan to buy USD/JPY upon reaching the entry point around 150.21 (green line on the chart), aiming for a rise to the level of 150.55 (thicker green line on the chart). At 150.55, I will exit purchases and open sales in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 30-35 points in the opposite direction). The pair's growth today will likely remain within the current trading channel. Note: Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning its rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy USD/JPY today in the event of two consecutive tests of the 149.85 level, when the MACD indicator is in oversold territory. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the target levels of 150.21 and 150.55 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell USD/JPY today upon breaking the 149.85 level (red line on the chart), which will lead to a rapid decline in the pair. The key target for sellers will be 149.48, where I will exit sales and consider buying in the opposite direction (anticipating a movement of 20-25 points in the opposite direction). Pressure on the pair will return if the daily high is broken again. Note: Before selling, make sure the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning its decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell USD/JPY today if there are two consecutive tests of the 150.21 level, when the MACD indicator is in the overbought territory. This will cap the pair's upward momentum and lead to a downward market reversal. A decline to the target levels of 149.85 and 149.48 can be expected.

Chart Overview:

• Thin green line – Entry price where the trading instrument can be bought;
• Thick green line – Target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further growth above this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – Entry price where the trading instrument can be sold;
• Thick red line – Target price where Take Profit can be placed or profits can be manually locked in, as further decline below this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator: It is important to consider overbought and oversold zones when entering the market.

Important: Beginner traders in the Forex market need to be very cautious when making decisions about market entry. It is best to stay out of the market before significant fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden price swings. If you decide to trade during news releases, always place stop-loss orders to minimize potential losses. Without stop-loss orders, you can quickly lose your entire deposit, especially if you do not use money management and trade large volumes.

And remember, successful trading requires a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation is initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.