empty
03.05.2023 12:00 PM
Bitcoin holds $28k ahead of Fed meeting: what to expect next?

Over the past few days, investment activity around cryptocurrencies and, specifically, Bitcoin has decreased significantly. There is a clear predominance of bears, which continue to push the price to local lows. All this is happening against the backdrop of a deteriorating macroeconomic situation.

This image is no longer relevant

Bitcoin price movements over the past few days clearly show that the market is preparing for the next Fed meeting. On the CME, the probability of a rate hike to 5.25% increased to 86%. Given the strength of the labor market and inflation at 5%, the Fed will make a difficult decision that will hurt BTC in the short term.

Aggravation of the banking crisis

At the same time, in the medium term, another increase in the key rate will negatively affect the traditional banking system. Bitcoin has tested the $27.5k level against the backdrop of the approaching Fed decision. No less significant events took place in the U.S. banking sector, pointing to a growing crisis.

This image is no longer relevant

The U.S. regional banks index showed a significant decline ahead of the Fed meeting due to liquidity issues at PacWest Bancorp and Western Alliance Bancorp. The companies announced a suspension of trading shares and preparation for bankruptcy filings.

There is also a significant outflow of investor funds from other regional banks ahead of the Fed meeting. Depositors are transferring capital to large national banks, which indicates a growing distrust in the traditional banking system.

This image is no longer relevant

Among the main beneficiaries of the outflow of funds from regional banks was JPMorgan, which actively provides its clients with services for investing in cryptocurrencies. In addition to indirect investments, direct investments in BTC are also growing, as evidenced by the correlation of the asset with gold.

Final key rate hike?

Global markets, including the cryptocurrency one, have adapted to the increase in the key rate and compete with each other for limited investment volumes. At the same time, not all areas successfully operate in conditions of limited liquidity. The situation in the U.S. banking system is a direct proof of this.

This image is no longer relevant

The labor market is also gradually weakening, which may push the Fed to complete the rate hike cycle. Financial markets believe that there will be a pause in rate hikes for the next two months, and in September, the rate will be reduced by 0.25%. Markets expect a rate of 3% by early 2024.

BTC/USD Analysis

As of May 2023, Bitcoin is emerging as a relative winner from the current crisis situation. We are seeing a significant weakening of the U.S. banking sector, the bankruptcy of new companies and the willingness of the authorities to compensate for losses. In such a situation, we should expect gradual injections into the banking sector.

This image is no longer relevant

Given this, in the medium term, BTC and the cryptocurrency market will continue to be an important defensive asset in the current crisis. In the short term, we see an attempt by the bears to push the price to the key support level of $26.6k, where a lot of liquidity is concentrated.

This image is no longer relevant

Increased volatility due to the Fed meeting helped sellers lower the price to $27.6k, but subsequently, bulls recovered the drop. It can also be argued that the large bearish candle on May 1 was a market reaction to the upcoming Fed meeting. Taking this into account, today should go smoothly if there are no additional triggers.

This image is no longer relevant

The technical metrics of the cryptocurrency do not show a single trend, which is typical for periods of increased volatility. In the near future, the price of the asset will remain within the range of $27.7k–$29.9k, and the results of the Fed meeting will not fundamentally change the situation.

Conclusion

Bitcoin and the cryptocurrency market are approaching the next Fed meeting in favorable positions. The Fed's decision may have a short-term negative effect on cryptocurrencies, but in the medium term it will allow BTC and other assets to significantly increase investment potential.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 3

Bitcoin and Ether have resumed growth, reaching new weekly highs amid favorable macroeconomic conditions. Over the past 24 hours, Bitcoin has risen by 2.5%, trading above $109,000. Ethereum also advanced

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:47 2025-07-03 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 2

Bitcoin continued its correction and during today's Asian trading session reached a new level of $105,000. Ethereum also dropped significantly but was quickly bought back, stabilizing around $2,425. Meanwhile

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:33 2025-07-02 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on July 1

Bitcoin failed to hold the $108,000 level, slipping into a more acceptable zone around $107,000. Ethereum also showed weakness at the end of the month, retreating to $2,460 after failing

Miroslaw Bawulski 08:55 2025-07-01 UTC+2

Key events this week that may impact crypto market

Bitcoin has pulled back below the $108,000 level, while Ethereum briefly rose above $2,500 over the weekend before retreating again. Clearly, traders will be closely monitoring several upcoming macroeconomic data

Jakub Novak 14:53 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 30

Bitcoin and Ethereum continued to grow over the weekend, indicating steady demand even as the leading cryptocurrency approaches its historical highs. While everyone is anticipating that Bitcoin will soon break

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:30 2025-06-30 UTC+2

Trading tips for crypto market on June 27 (North American session)

Bitcoin made another attempt to return to the $108,000 level, but failed to hold it and corrected lower, falling below the $107,000 mark, a move that could lead

Miroslaw Bawulski 15:47 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Another Major Company Announces $1 Billion Raise to Buy Bitcoin

The cryptocurrency market is showing strong confidence. Given its correlation with the U.S. stock market—where historical highs are being updated—there is room to expect further growth in digital assets. However

Jakub Novak 10:50 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 27

Bitcoin and Ethereum have paused their upward movement following yesterday's weak fundamental data, indicating a slowdown in the U.S. economy's growth. However, this wasn't the primary driver behind the pause

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:16 2025-06-27 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations for the Cryptocurrency Market on June 26

Bitcoin and Ethereum are demonstrating stable growth amid new forecasts regarding the number of interest rate cuts expected from the Federal Reserve this year. Another dovish stance from

Miroslaw Bawulski 09:19 2025-06-26 UTC+2

Bitcoin Aims For Continued Growth

Yesterday, Bitcoin continued its upward movement, driven by the notably softer tone of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell regarding the future of interest rates. His cautious remarks — that

Jakub Novak 12:42 2025-06-25 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.