empty
26.01.2021 11:31 AM
Falling into the abyss: oil has big problems ahead

This image is no longer relevant

Crude oil prices resumed negative dynamics on Tuesday morning amid a strained situation with the level of demand for black gold, which is limited against the background of the ongoing coronavirus pandemic and the rapid growth of infection. The problems associated with the long-awaited mass vaccination, namely the fact that it is going too slowly, only exacerbates the whole picture.

A new wave of coronavirus infection in China is adding fuel to the fire, which is now becoming almost obvious and inevitable, although the authorities are making every effort to rectify the situation. All this is already exerting serious negative pressure on the crude oil market, where demand is declining. Recall that China is one of the largest importers of oil in the world, and the level of consumption of raw materials during the celebration of the Lunar New Year traditionally grows. However, this year, the Chinese government seems to have no choice but to introduce the most stringent restrictive measures on the movement of citizens of the country so as not to repeat the scale of infection that was recorded last winter and spring. The national government is already actively encouraging people to stay at home and postpone their traditional travel to visit relatives. On the one hand, this can have a positive effect in the future, as severe consequences of infection can be avoided, and, consequently, the demand for raw materials will recover faster. On the other hand, the situation on the global black gold market will worsen significantly.

The price of futures contracts for Brent crude oil for delivery in March on the trading floor in London sank 0.68% or $0.38, to $55.5 per barrel. Monday's trading session ended with an increase of 0.9% or $0.47, which sent the final price at $55.88 per barrel. However, as a new day dawned, the problems returned.

The price of futures contracts for WTI crude oil for delivery in March on the electronic trading floor in New York fell 0.63% or $0.33, to $52.44 per barrel. Monday's session ended in the green zone with an increase of 1% or $0.5, sending the final price at $52.77 per barrel.

Seasonal tourist trips in China on the occasion of the celebration of the Lunar New Year should start very soon – on January 28. However, this year looks like it will be special. According to preliminary estimates of analysts, the total number of trips may decrease by at least 40% compared to the same indicator in 2019 and reach only 1.7 billion. This figure is 15% less than the one recorded last year.

The main problem for market participants now is connected with the fact that all the consequences of the travel restrictions imposed in China on the overall level of consumption of crude oil are still unclear. Nevertheless, there are already clearly visible signals indicating that the relationship between supply and demand for black gold is clearly not on the side of the latter. However, some attempts to support the oil supply market also exist, which is good news.

In particular, the Russian oil company, Urals, has already announced that it is going to cut its supplies in February by 2.2 million tons, which is 29% less than the level that was in the first month of 2021. Also, Iraq expressed its desire to reduce its production in the first months of 2021 to compensate for the shortage that was accumulated under the agreement with OPEC signed last year.

One way or another, all these measures may not be enough for the oil market to avoid serious problems soon. In this regard, no expert can yet judge the medium and long-term prospects of its development.

Maria Shablon,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
选择时间框架
5
分钟
15
分钟
30
分钟
1
小时
4
小时
1
1
通过InstaForex赚取加密货币汇率变动的收益。
下载MetaTrader 4并开启您的第一笔交易。
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

推荐文章

美國市場新聞摘要:美中貿易協議提振有限,美國股市在6月12日收低

美國股市在美中達成貿易協議後收低。儘管有正面消息流出,投資者還是開始積極對多頭部位進行獲利了結,導致價格回調。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 16:31 2025-06-12 UTC+2

Robinhood 從 S&P 500 中移除 — 多米諾效應衝擊全球市場

Robinhood的股價下跌,此前該交易平台被排除在S&P 500之外。華納兄弟的股價在公司宣佈重組計劃後下跌。

14:54 2025-06-11 UTC+2

每日對比:日經指數上升,歐元下滑,全球市場屏息以待美中會談

特斯拉領漲,市場回升 週二,由於特斯拉股票的大幅上漲,標普500指數收高。投資者情緒受到提振,因為大家對於美中貿易談判進展的希望增加,預期將解決今年大部分時間對全球市場造成壓力的長期關稅僵局。

14:31 2025-06-11 UTC+2

6月11日美國市場新聞摘要

美國股票市場已達到預期水準,現在進入「靜默偵察階段」,投資者正等待關鍵通脹數據的發布。即將公布的數據可能會影響指數走向的基調,並影響當前漲勢是否能持續的前景。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 13:57 2025-06-11 UTC+2

今日對比:日經指數上升,歐元下跌,全球在美中會談前屏息以待

S&P 500 在週二的交易收盤時收於正值區域,這得益於 Tesla 股價的強勁上漲。投資者情緒轉向樂觀,因為對於美中貿易談判能取得建設性進展,以解決長期以來困擾全球市場的關稅僵局的希望重新浮現。

Thomas Frank 07:48 2025-06-11 UTC+2

利率上升:市場等待消費者價格指數(CPI),特朗普與馬斯克發生衝突,Qualcomm收購Alphawave

5月份的CPI報告預計在星期三發布。預算法案在特朗普和馬斯克的公開分歧中成為焦點。

14:05 2025-06-10 UTC+2

6月10日美國市場新聞摘要

S&P 500 和 Nasdaq 100 指數顯著上升,這是由於對即將到來的美中貿易談判持樂觀預期所推動。投資者押注於潛在的關稅緩解,這可能成為推動更廣泛全球經濟復甦的催化劑。

Ekaterina Kiseleva 12:52 2025-06-10 UTC+2

Robinhood 從 S&P 500 降級 — 多米諾效應影響整個市場

美國股市週一交易小幅收漲,主要因亞馬遜和Alphabet股票的上漲帶動。同時,全球投資者密切關注美國和中國之間重新展開的對話,這是為緩解今年大部分時間困擾市場的貿易緊張局勢所做的持續努力的一部分。

Thomas Frank 12:49 2025-06-10 UTC+2

市場等待CPI,利率上升,特朗普與馬斯克交鋒,高通收購Alphawave

由於對唐納德·特朗普關稅政策的憂慮導致4月份出現大幅拋售後,股票市場強勁回歸。華爾街在週末結束時表現出色,標準普爾500指數 (.SPX) 自2月底以來首次收盤突破6000點。

Thomas Frank 11:49 2025-06-09 UTC+2

泰坦之爭:Musk與Trump的對決,投資者計算損失

美國股市指數週四收低,因波動交易和特斯拉股價大幅下跌拖累。特朗普總統與中國領導人習近平的外交開局引發的投資者熱情,被這家電動汽車製造商的急劇下跌所掩蓋。

Thomas Frank 11:45 2025-06-06 UTC+2
现在无法通话?
提出您的问题,用 在线帮助.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.