empty
24.09.2024 10:49 AM
Bullish Momentum for the Pound Gains Strength

The Bank of England, as expected, kept the interest rate at 5% during the meeting that concluded last week, with votes split 8 to 1 instead of the anticipated 7 to 2, indicating a more hawkish stance than expected.

The BoE maintained a significant portion of its previous recommendations, stating that policy will remain restrictive until inflation returns to target. When that will happen is quite unclear, as the latest report showed an increase in the core index in August from 3.3% year-on-year to 3.6%, exceeding forecasts.

This image is no longer relevant

The NIESR Institute, in its baseline scenario, forecasts that overall inflation will rise from the current 2.2% to 2.8% by the end of the year. Even if this increase is due to base effects, it is unlikely that the BoE will start lowering rates at a pace comparable to the Federal Reserve. Currently, the market predicts only one rate cut this year, specifically in November, by 25 basis points, with the rate expected to be at 4.75% by the end of the year and 3.25% by the end of 2025. In contrast, the Fed's rate forecast is much more aggressive—by the end of the year, the futures market sees the rate in the 4.00/4.25% range, and it could drop to 3.25% as early as March. The dynamics favor the pound, and if this forecast materializes, the bullish momentum for the pound will gain additional strength.

Regarding the economy, signals from the UK are more favorable than those from the US. Retail sales growth in August exceeded all forecasts, indicating strong consumer demand and supporting inflation. PMI indices have slightly decreased but remain in expansion territory, which casts the UK economy in a favorable light compared to the US. Most fundamental factors suggest a pressure on expectations for a decline in the pound.

The net long GBP position adjusted by £2.2 billion in the reporting week, down to £5.18 billion. Positioning remains bullish, although the calculated price has lost direction.

This image is no longer relevant

The pound has overcome the resistance at 1.3266, which we previously identified as the nearest target, and has reached a 2.5-year high. From a technical perspective, the bullish momentum is strong, and there are no significant resistances until 1.4245. The slowdown in the calculated price is linked to the balance of forces ahead of last week's Fed meeting when the market consensus was that the Fed would raise rates by 25 basis points and that the US economy was far from recession. Both factors are no longer in play, so there are fewer bullish signals for the dollar, allowing the pound to take advantage of the situation and attempt to build on its success. The level of 1.3266 has turned into support, and buying is justified on a pullback to this level, while a deeper correction seems unlikely.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

The Pound Ignores Weak Data and Persistently Tries to Continue Rising

The macroeconomic data from the UK published last week looks frankly weak—everything is in the red zone, meaning worse than expected. Nevertheless, the pound continues to climb upward regardless

Kuvat Raharjo 19:36 2025-06-16 UTC+2

CFTC Report: The Dollar Is Being Sold Off Again. Awaiting New Revelations from Trump

Five weeks ago, the total short position on the U.S. dollar against major currencies stopped increasing, which gave reason to believe the dollar might begin an offensive in the currency

Kuvat Raharjo 12:14 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the GBP/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum while remaining on the defensive. Traders prefer to wait for the release of key data before opening directional positions

Irina Yanina 12:10 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Analysis and Forecast

Today, the EUR/USD pair is attempting to regain positive momentum, approaching the psychological level of 1.600 and price levels last seen in 2021. Traders are eagerly awaiting the important political

Irina Yanina 12:08 2025-06-16 UTC+2

The Israel-Iran Confrontation. Fed Meeting. What's Next? (I expect further decline in USD/CAD and a local pullback in gold before a new wave of growth)

Israel and Iran are exchanging missile strikes, but it seems markets are trying to play their own game, assuming that this conflict will not cross the nuclear threshold

Pati Gani 10:51 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD: War Is No Ally to the Greenback

At the start of the new trading week, the EUR/USD pair stayed within the 1.15 range and is even trying to approach the resistance level of 1.1600 despite the ongoing

Irina Manzenko 10:32 2025-06-16 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 16? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

No macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Monday, but the market does not lack news. This week, Donald Trump announced his intention to raise all import tariffs, as none

Paolo Greco 06:46 2025-06-16 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 16: How Trump Is Undermining the Dollar

The GBP/USD currency pair will remain under the influence of geopolitics and politics in the new week. Essentially, we've been saying the same thing every day for the past four

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 16: The Israel-Iran Conflict Changes Nothing

The EUR/USD currency pair moved sharply back and forth throughout Friday. The pair traded with high volatility for two consecutive days, and there is a clear and logical explanation

Paolo Greco 04:54 2025-06-16 UTC+2

EUR/USD. Weekly Preview. Focus on the Middle East and the Federal Reserve

The final trading day of last week ended on an uncertain note. Reacting to Middle East developments, the EUR/USD pair sharply declined on Friday, retreating from the multi-year price high

Irina Manzenko 01:30 2025-06-16 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.