Trade Analysis and Tips for the Euro

The test of the 1.0863 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above the zero mark, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy euros, even though there was a possibility of a continued upward trend, which, as you can see on the chart, didn't materialize. Important U.S. statistics are set to be released later in the day, providing a clearer view of inflation trends in the country. The focus will be on the core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) index, along with changes in consumer spending and income in the U.S. A decline in the inflation indicator will likely weaken the U.S. dollar. As for the intraday strategy, I'll primarily rely on Scenarios 1 and 2.

Buy Signal

• Scenario 1: Today, buying the euro is possible at the 1.0877 level (green line on the chart) with a target of 1.0914. At 1.0914, I plan to exit the market and sell the euro in the opposite direction, aiming for a 30-35 point move from the entry point. Expect strong euro growth in the second half of the day only if there's news of reduced inflation pressure in the U.S. Important! Before buying, make sure the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and just starting its upward movement.
• Scenario 2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0853 level while the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and prompt an upward reversal. Growth can be expected toward the opposing levels of 1.0877 and 1.0914.

Sell Signal

• Scenario 1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0853 level (red line on the chart). The target will be 1.0818, where I will exit the market and then buy, aiming for a 20-25 point move from that level. Downward pressure on the pair is likely to return if the data is strong. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and just starting its decline.
• Scenario 2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0877 level while the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. A decline can be expected toward the opposing levels of 1.0853 and 1.0818.

On the Chart:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument;
• Thick green line – suggested price where Take Profit can be placed, or profit can be taken manually, as further growth beyond this level is unlikely;
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument;
• Thick red line – suggested price where Take Profit can be placed, or profit can be taken manually, as further decline beyond this level is unlikely;
• MACD Indicator – for market entry, it is important to consider overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Beginner Forex traders should make entry decisions cautiously. It's best to stay out of the market before key fundamental reports are released to avoid sudden rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to minimize losses. Without stop-losses, you risk losing your entire deposit quickly. This is especially true if you are not using money management and are trading with large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need a clear trading plan, like the one outlined above. Making spontaneous trade decisions based on the current market situation is often counterproductive for an intraday trader.