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04.07.2022 09:35 AM
Why does the danger of miner capitulation persist and what does this mean for Bitcoin?
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Bitcoin continues to consolidate in a narrow range of $21k–$19k. The volatility of the asset is decreasing, and daily trading volumes reach the classic $33 billion. Despite the relative calm, sellers' pressure is felt on the market, which is why the price of Bitcoin has dropped beyond the round $20k mark. At the same time, the nature of the decline in BTC/USD quotes indicates that buyers managed to find a support zone near $20k, and sellers do not have enough volumes to retest the local bottom.

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At the current stage, the news background and technical factors do not indicate a likely decline in the cryptocurrency to the level of the previous low. However, it is important to understand that this scenario is still acceptable. The main concerns are related to miners who are in a difficult financial situation due to a significant decrease in income from mining cryptocurrencies. It was the mining companies that became the catalyst for updating the market bottom at $17.7k. Due to the difficulty of accessing liquidity, miners massively sold BTC coins, which negatively affected the price.

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The pressure of the volumes of coins sold by miners is still in the market. In May 2022, BTC mining firms earned about $900 million, and in June, profits fell to $600 million. Glassnode claims that the miners have sold all the Bitcoin they accumulated in May. In other words, there are almost a billion BTC volumes on the market that appeared between June 16 and 20. We observed a permanent and serious transfer of cryptocurrency to exchanges, which was the main catalyst for the fall to $17k.

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The price of Bitcoin managed to recover and stabilize in the $19k–$21k range. However, the historical context indicates that the capitulation of miners can last several weeks or a month. In the current market situation, there is no doubt that mining companies will have to once again seek access to liquidity through growing debt. Bloomberg has already stated that loans worth $4 billion are at risk of default. JPMorgan also noted that in the near future, it is the miners who will exert the main pressure on the price of the cryptocurrency. Given the difficult financial situation, there is every reason to believe that companies will continue to sell off Bitcoin to cover current expenses.

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It is likely that the mass surrender of miners may not happen, but the constant sale of BTC coins will put negative pressure on the price of the cryptocurrency. At the same time, there is still no activity of large buyers on the market, capable of absorbing new volumes and allowing the price to resume its upward movement. At the current stage, we see a constant but slow absorption of multi-billion dollar volumes of BTC, which appeared on the market after the sell-off in mid-June.

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With this in mind, as of July 4, there are no real prerequisites for an upward movement in Bitcoin. However, playing with expectations at the bottom of a bear market is an important tool for the big players to raise liquidity. Therefore, the gradual accumulation of BTC coins will be accompanied by bursts of volatility, and sharp price movements from the local support zone to the resistance zone. Fundamentally, the situation around the asset has not changed, and the probability of finding another local bottom is higher than resuming the upward movement.

Artem Petrenko,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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