empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
12.12.2023 01:26 PM
EUR/USD: Ahead of ECB and Fed meetings
Open trading account Open demo account

This image is no longer relevant

Despite some decline in the DXY index, overall, the dollar remains stable on the eve of important events and publications.

The first of these is the publication today at 13:30 (GMT) of fresh inflation data in the United States. Tomorrow's decisions by the Federal Reserve regarding the prospects of monetary policy will largely depend on them.

Today marks the beginning of the last meeting of the U.S. Federal Reserve this year.

Even though Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell previously mentioned the possibility of another interest rate hike this year, i.e., at this meeting, most economists believe that the central bank leaders will not raise interest rates and may hint at an imminent shift in monetary policy towards easing. Recent data on inflation in the United States, signaling a slowdown, suggest such a possibility: in October, the Consumer Price Index slowed to 0% (from 0.4% in September with a forecast of 0.1%) and 3.2% on an annual basis (compared to 3.7% in September with a forecast of 3.3%), while the annual core CPI adjusted from 4.1% in September to 4.0% in October.

That is why today's publication of inflation data in the United States will determine how strong the accompanying statements by Federal Reserve officials will be on Wednesday.

Most economists believe that the Fed will begin easing its monetary policy in 2024, but not before the second half of the year. Until then, it will keep the interest rate at the current level of 5.50%.

Powell already mentioned that they are not thinking about lowering rates, but the question they are asking is whether they should raise rates again. This was after the November meeting of the Federal Reserve, when its leaders extended the pause in interest rate hikes, leaving it at 5.50%.

It would be a big surprise if Powell now speaks about the possibility of easing policy, given the slowdown in inflation in the United States. In this case, the dollar will come under strong selling pressure, which, in turn, along with Powell's dovish statements, will trigger the so-called pre-holiday rally in the U.S. stock market.

Otherwise, if today's inflation data indicate an acceleration, it will increase the likelihood of keeping the interest rate at the current level for a longer time. Moreover, it will fuel intrigue about tomorrow's decision by the Federal Reserve—whether the interest rate will be raised or not.

The decision on it will be published on Wednesday at 19:00 (GMT). The Federal Reserve press conference will begin at 19:30.

As for the main competitor of the dollar in the foreign exchange market, the euro is strengthening today against both major cross pairs and the dollar.

As of writing, the EUR/USD pair was trading near the 1.0800 level, attempting to overcome the zone of significant short-term resistance levels at 1.0793 and 1.0810.

If today's inflation data in the United States, as noted above, turn out to be stronger than forecast and previous values, it will likely lead to the strengthening of the dollar and, consequently, a decline in EUR/USD.

This image is no longer relevant

In this case, a more successful breakdown of the key support level at 1.0760 is possible, leading to further decline.

However, it is important to remember that after the Federal Reserve meeting this week, the European Central Bank (ECB) will also hold its meeting. What if it surprises the markets and raises interest rates? The ECB's decision on interest rates will be published on Thursday at 13:15 (GMT). Until this event, the dynamics of the EUR/USD pair will be entirely dependent on the movement of the dollar.

Jurij Tolin,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
What to Pay Attention to on May 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but some are quite significant. Naturally, the focus is on the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate, yet it's also important
Paolo Greco
07:06 2025-05-02 +02:00
1180
Forecast
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on May 2 Euro and Pound Resumed Declines Against the U.S. Dollar Yesterday, Driven by Strong U.S. Fundamentals During the U.S. trading session, the euro and the pound returned to their downward movement
Miroslaw Bawulski
06:49 2025-05-02 +02:00
1300
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

What to Pay Attention to on May 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but some are quite significant. Naturally, the focus is on the U.S. NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate, yet it's also important
Paolo Greco 07:06 2025-05-02 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – May 2: The U.S. Dollar Didn't Rise for Long

On Thursday, the GBP/USD currency pair continued to decline. The dollar had strengthened for three consecutive days—despite having no objective reason. U.S. macroeconomic data has been consistently weak; there were
Paolo Greco 03:50 2025-05-02 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – May 2: The Dollar Faces a New Collapse – And It's Far from the Last

On Thursday, the EUR/USD currency pair once again traded relatively calmly, but the U.S. dollar failed to show any meaningful growth this time. A little bit of good news goes
Paolo Greco 03:47 2025-05-02 UTC+2

USD/JPY: A Rough Patch for the Yen

At its latest meeting, the Bank of Japan kept all key policy settings unchanged, effectively implementing the most expected baseline scenario—despite earlier conflicting statements from central bank officials
Irina Manzenko 01:19 2025-05-02 UTC+2

The Dollar Demands the Impossible

The market has finally found relief after America's Liberation Day. Stock indices are ready to recover the ground lost following the White House's implementation of sweeping tariffs amid expectations
Marek Petkovich 01:02 2025-05-02 UTC+2

Market pins blame on former president

In April, the US stock market took investors on its wildest roller coaster ride since the pandemic. The White House's "American Liberation Day" tariffs seemed to undermine the S&P 500's
Marek Petkovich 12:01 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Why Gold Is Falling for the Third Consecutive Day

Gold is declining for the third straight day amid signs of potential progress in trade negotiations between the U.S. and several other countries, which is dampening demand for safe-haven assets—even
Jakub Novak 11:40 2025-05-01 UTC+2

The Japanese Yen Has Declined Sharply — Here's Why

The yen fell sharply against the dollar and bond yields declined after the Bank of Japan (BoJ) left interest rates unchanged and pushed back the expected timeline for hitting
Jakub Novak 11:31 2025-05-01 UTC+2

The Eurozone Continues to Deliver Unexpected Results

According to the latest data, the eurozone economy grew more than expected at the beginning of the year, although it has yet to fully feel the impact of the U.S
Jakub Novak 09:13 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Why Did the Dollar Rise on Weak U.S. GDP Data?

The U.S. dollar completely ignored the sharp GDP contraction in the first quarter of this year, indicating that traders and investors are already prepared for a worse scenario than just
Jakub Novak 09:06 2025-05-01 UTC+2

Top analytics

Relevance up to 21:00 2025-05-02 UTC--4
EUR/USD Overview – May 2: The Dollar Faces a New Collapse – And It's Far from the Last
03:47 2025-05-02
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-05-03 UTC--4
Intraday Strategies for Beginner Traders on May 2
06:49 2025-05-02
Forecast
Relevance up to 21:00 2025-05-02 UTC--4
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on May 2: Third Consecutive Day of Dollar Strength
03:47 2025-05-02
Trading plan
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-05-03 UTC--4
What to Pay Attention to on May 2? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners
07:06 2025-05-02
Fundamental analysis
Relevance up to 00:00 2025-05-03 UTC--4
EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the European Session on May 2. Commitment of Traders (COT) Reports (Trade Review). The Dollar Reacts to Any Positive Data
07:53 2025-05-02
Trading plan
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.