empty
13.09.2024 03:46 AM
Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on September 13; Nothing to Talk About After the ECB Meeting

Analysis of EUR/USD 5M

This image is no longer relevant

The EUR/USD pair showed no desire to move on Thursday. Volatility barely exceeded 40 pips. And this was on the day of the European Central Bank meeting and Christine Lagarde's speech. And on the day when the ECB lowered key interest rates for the second time! Moreover, the euro price rose due to the ECB's decision to ease monetary policy! That's all you need to know about the logic of Thursday's movements. The euro has been correcting for several weeks, but there's still no sense that it has begun a downward trend. The pair corrected by 200 pips and failed to overcome the psychological level of 1.1000. For now, the dollar's situation is being saved by the trend line and the Ichimoku indicator lines. These are located above the price, so the downward trend remains intact. Since the EUR/USD pair has never been super-volatile, one might assume everything is proceeding as usual. But we still don't see the market eager to buy the US currency.

Now, we should expect the pair to rise to the Kijun-sen line. Near this line lie two other lines that currently support the bears. We will see another round of illogical growth in the euro if these are overcome.

In yesterday's 5-minute time frame, there was one reasonably good trading signal to buy. The price bounced off the 1.1006 level and moved upward for the rest of the day. The movement was weak, but even such a move allowed traders to profit from a long position. In principle, it could have been closed anywhere.

COT report:

This image is no longer relevant

The latest COT report is dated September 3. The illustration above clearly shows that the net position of non-commercial traders has remained bullish for a long time. The bears' attempt to take over failed miserably. The net position of non-commercial traders (red line) declined in the second half of 2023 and the first of 2024, while commercial traders (blue line) grew. Currently, professional players are again increasing their long positions.

We also still do not see any fundamental factors supporting the strengthening of the euro. Technical analysis indicates that the price is in a consolidation phase—in other words, a flat. In the weekly time frame, it is clear that since December 2022, the pair has been trading between levels 1.0448 and 1.1274. In other words, we have moved from a seven-month flat into an 18-month one.

At the moment, the red and blue lines are slightly moving away from each other, which indicates that long positions on the euro are increasing. However, such changes cannot be the basis for long-term conclusions within a flat market. During the last reporting week, the number of long positions in the non-commercial group decreased by 2,400, while the number of short positions fell by 9,600. Accordingly, the net position increased by another 7,200. Yet, there is still potential for the euro to fall.

Analysis of EUR/USD 1H

This image is no longer relevant

In the hourly time frame, the EUR/USD pair finally has a real chance to end the baseless upward trend from eight months to two years. A new downtrend has formed, which is currently short-term. Since the Federal Reserve meeting is still a week away, the market could resume the reckless selling of the US currency. However, some technical grounds exist to expect a decline in the pair for now. The price is below the Ichimoku indicator line, which opens up at least some prospects for the US dollar.

For September 13, we highlight the following levels: 1.0658–1.0669, 1.0757, 1.0797, 1.0843, 1.0889, 1.0935, 1.1006, 1.1092, 1.1137, 1.1185, 1.1234, 1.1274, as well as the Senkou Span B (1.1114) and Kijun-sen (1.1085) lines. The Ichimoku indicator lines can move during the day, so this should be considered when identifying trading signals. Remember to set a Stop Loss to break even if the price has moved in the intended direction by 15 pips. This will protect you against potential losses if the signal turns out to be false.

On Friday, a secondary industrial production report will be published in the European Union and, in the US, the secondary Consumer Sentiment Index from the University of Michigan. The market has again fallen into hibernation; volatility is decreasing, so we do not expect strong movements today. Unfortunately, the pair is again starting to trade illogically and is practically ceasing to move.

Explanation of illustrations:

Support and resistance levels: Thick red lines near which the trend may end.

Kijun-sen and Senkou Span B lines: These Ichimoku indicator lines, transferred from the 4-hour timeframe to the hourly chart, are strong lines.

Extreme levels: Thin red lines from which the price previously bounced. These provide trading signals.

Yellow lines: Trend lines, trend channels, and other technical patterns.

Indicator 1 on COT charts: The net position size for each category of traders

Paolo Greco,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 23rd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2325 level as a point to make market entry decisions. Let's examine the 5-minute chart to understand what happened. A rise

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:40 2025-01-23 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 23rd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0417 level and planned to base trading decisions on it. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and break down what happened. A rise

Miroslaw Bawulski 12:35 2025-01-23 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on January 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Wednesday, the GBP/USD pair continued its subtle upward movement. As illustrated above, the price is gradually creeping higher, which indirectly suggests

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-01-23 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on January 23? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Wednesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD The EUR/USD currency pair continued its relatively weak upward movement on Wednesday. The price remains above the local trendline, and there

Paolo Greco 06:17 2025-01-23 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for GBP/USD on January 23: The Pound Rested on Wednesday

The GBP/USD currency pair saw a slight increase on Wednesday. Currently, the technical outlook for both the euro and the pound appears nearly identical. The key distinction is that

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-01-23 UTC+2

Trading Recommendations and Analysis for EUR/USD on January 23: The Euro Rises While It Still Can

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its weak upward movement on Wednesday, despite a lack of fundamental reasons for the euro to rise again. While one might speculate that the dollar's

Paolo Greco 03:00 2025-01-23 UTC+2

GBP/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 22nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.2322 level and planned to make market entry decisions around it. Let's review the 5-minute chart and analyze what happened. The decline

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:25 2025-01-22 UTC+2

EUR/USD: Trading Plan for the U.S. Session on January 22nd (Review of Morning Trades)

In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.0433 level and planned to make market entry decisions around it. Let's review the 5-minute chart to see what happened. The rise

Miroslaw Bawulski 14:22 2025-01-22 UTC+2

How to Trade the GBP/USD Pair on January 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of GBP/USD On Tuesday, the GBP/USD pair initially traded downward before reversing and moving upward. It is important to note that the British pound

Paolo Greco 06:37 2025-01-22 UTC+2

How to Trade the EUR/USD Pair on January 22? Simple Tips and Trade Analysis for Beginners

Analysis of Tuesday's Trades 1H Chart of EUR/USD On Tuesday, the EUR/USD currency pair experienced significant movement in both directions. In the first half of the day, there

Paolo Greco 06:28 2025-01-22 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.