Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The test of the 1.0820 level occurred when the MACD indicator had already moved significantly above zero, limiting the pair's upward potential. For this reason, I did not buy the euro. A second test of this level shortly afterward allowed me to implement Scenario #2, selling the euro as detailed in my morning forecast. As a result, the pair dropped by 20 points. In the second half of the day, U.S. consumer confidence figures will be released, which could add pressure on sellers. However, if the data surpasses economists' forecasts, downward pressure on EUR/USD is likely to persist. Additionally, secondary data on the trade balance and changes in the housing price index for the 20 largest cities will be released, but these are unlikely to significantly impact the market. My intraday strategy will focus on implementing Scenarios #1 and #2.

Buy Signal

Scenario #1: Today, buying the euro is possible upon reaching the 1.0810 level (green line on the chart), targeting a rise to 1.0837. At 1.0837, I plan to exit the market and initiate a short position on the euro, aiming for a movement of 30-35 points from the entry. A strong euro rally in the second half of the day is likely only if U.S. data is very weak. Important: Before buying, ensure that the MACD is above zero and just starting to rise from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to buy the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0793 level while the MACD is in the oversold area. This should curb further downward and may lead to an upward reversal. A rise to the opposite levels of 1.0810 and 1.0837 can be expected.

Sell Signal

Scenario #1: I plan to sell the euro after reaching the 1.0793 level (red line on the chart), targeting a decline to 1.0766, where I will exit the market and buy in the opposite direction, expecting a movement of 20-25 points upward. Downward pressure on the pair should return if the U.S. data is strong. Important: Before selling, ensure that the MACD is below zero and just starting to decline from it.

Scenario #2: I also plan to sell the euro today if there are two consecutive tests of the 1.0810 level while the MACD is in the overbought area. This will limit the pair's upward potential and could lead to a downward reversal. A decline to the opposite levels of 1.0793 and 1.0766 can be expected.

Chart Legend:

• Thin green line – entry price for buying the trading instrument.
• Thick green line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further growth above this level is unlikely.
• Thin red line – entry price for selling the trading instrument.
• Thick red line – suggested price for placing Take Profit or fixing profit manually, as further decline below this level is unlikely.
• MACD: when entering the market, it's crucial to consider overbought and oversold levels.

Important: Beginner traders in the forex market should exercise caution when deciding on market entry. Before the release of key fundamental reports, it's best to stay out of the market to avoid sharp exchange rate fluctuations. If you choose to trade during news releases, always set stop-loss orders to manage risk. Trading without stop-loss orders can result in rapid losses, especially if you don't practice money management and trade in large volumes.

Remember that successful trading requires a clear plan, like the one I've outlined above. Making impulsive trading decisions based solely on the current market situation is generally an unprofitable strategy for an intraday trader.