Forex Analysis & Reviews: 27.03.2025 - Market picks wrong favorite

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

This section features the most important information about trading with InstaForex. We provide both analysis from leading experts for experienced traders and articles on trading conditions for beginners. Our services will help increase your profit potential.

Become Trader

Account Opening

See also

Trading Conditions

Forex Analytics

Charts

This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.

Start as Beginner

How to start trading

Useful information

Training and recordings

InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.

Become Investor

PAMM System

ForexCopy System

Passive investments

OYS account

Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.

Become Partner

Main Page

Partner Area

Advantages for Affiliates

Registration

This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.

All Promo Campaigns

Bonuses

Contests

Events

Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.

Full details

Forums

We are in social networks

Forex humour

Forex Portal

InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.

Learn More

History

Why Choose Us

InstaSport

Regulation

Company News

Awards

InstaForex Stars

InstaForex Offline

Headquarters

Key documents

Social Responsibility

InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally

27.03.2025 09:13 AM

Market picks wrong favorite

The higher the climb, the harder the fall. The S&P 500 tumbled in response to Donald Trump's announcement of 25% tariffs on automobiles. There will be no exceptions, although countries included in the North American Free Trade Agreement will receive preferential treatment for auto parts exports to the US. Europe and Japan are threatening retaliation, and fear has returned to equity markets.

Some of the most heavily sold stocks were names from the Magnificent Seven, which are now set to face their worst quarter in two years. Competition from China in electric vehicles and artificial intelligence has put an end to American exceptionalism — and this is just the beginning.

Magnificent Seven Quarterly Dynamics

Although Donald Trump has labeled former allies as freeloaders — draining the US of jobs and wealth — the country's GDP growth has long been fueled by globalization. By undermining it with protectionist policies, the White House risks a slowdown in GDP growth as early as Q1, with the Atlanta Fed's leading indicator pointing to just 0.2% growth. That's bad news for the S&P 500.

The US may appear to hold the upper hand in the trade war, giving Trump room to toss around tariff threats. However, the country runs a large current account deficit, which requires continued inflows of foreign capital into Treasury markets. Will China, Japan, and Europe, now targeted by these import tariffs, continue to finance it? The EU's retaliation plan includes reducing its holdings of US debt — a painful payback for the trade conflict. What if Beijing and Tokyo follow suit?

The outsized share of US equities in global portfolios is also a product of international cooperation. Capital is already flowing out of US markets, but the outflow is far from over. It remains to be seen how much a coordinated response from global economies will ultimately cost the United States.

A narrowing US budget deficit could also spell trouble for the S&P 500. By mid-year, the debt ceiling will be back in the spotlight, and Trump's plans to cut $4.5 trillion in taxes, $2 trillion in spending, and $2.5 trillion in tariffs may prove difficult to implement. In any case, Washington is moving towards fiscal consolidation, which will further slow US GDP growth. In a high-inflation environment, the Fed is unlikely to come to the rescue.

From a technical point of view, the S&P 500 pulled back earlier than expected on the daily chart. The 5,815 level was not reached, but the key now is to identify the boundaries of a medium-term consolidation range — likely between 5,500 and 5,790. It may make sense to sell the index on rallies and look to buy back near the lower boundary of the trading range.

You have already liked this post today

*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.