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02.04.2025 09:51 AM
Markets May React to New U.S. Tariffs with Growth—But Under One Condition... (GBP/USD Downside and USD/CAD Upside Possible)
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The day Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day" has arrived. Markets are bracing for the U.S. to introduce comprehensive and large-scale tariffs on its trade partners and potential retaliatory measures from those countries.

The White House has stated that the new tariffs will be implemented immediately. How prepared are financial markets for this?

Let's begin with the stock markets. U.S., European, and Asian indices have recently been trading sideways, under pressure from the looming decision by the U.S. to impose high and far-reaching tariffs on virtually all imported goods. While markets have already priced in much of this news, it's still unclear whether this move will trigger a major rally—given that investors often act in advance—or if we'll see a broad sell-off instead.

The Cryptocurrency Market

This is an entirely separate story, primarily disconnected from reality, as these assets lack intrinsic value. Their rises and falls are driven mainly by speculative market sentiment around global events. Overall, market sentiment—whether positive or negative—is key for crypto.

The Forex Market

Here, things are also relatively "dull." The U.S. dollar has remained stable for four straight weeks against a basket of major currencies amid expectations surrounding Trump's new tariff plans. Uncertainty over how the 47th president will act and what the impact on the U.S. economy will be—particularly the government debt market, which heavily influences dollar movement—continues to dominate sentiment.

Commodities have also been moving sideways overall. Participants are responding to key OPEC+ developments and geopolitical events while reacting to the U.S. president's constantly shifting rhetoric.

An interesting point is that market participants have recently been ignoring major economic data releases in the U.S. and other key global regions. Even today, the focus will be on the ADP private-sector employment report from the U.S.

Will it significantly influence the dollar and U.S. stock markets?

According to the consensus forecast, the ADP figure is expected to jump to 118,000 in March, up from 77,000 in February. That would typically be a strong signal for the dollar and U.S. equities. However, given today's focus on tariffs, the main event overshadows all reports—even important ones—. Nonetheless, the improved U.S. labor market data will not go unnoticed by investors. If they don't hear anything new or negative regarding tariffs, investors may react by buying risk assets and the dollar—driven by relief and clarity over the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy.

I believe there is a strong chance of a positive outcome, especially if Trump doesn't announce anything new if the actual tariffs are slightly lower than anticipated—something that remains possible—or if they align with previously presented plans.

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Forecast of the Day

GBP/USD

The pair has been trading sideways since the start of the month, reflecting trader uncertainty about the impact of Trump's new tariffs. However, today, there's a chance the dollar could receive support, potentially pushing the pair out of its range and down toward 1.2780. A potential entry point is around 1.2895.

USD/CAD

This pair is also in a sideways range. A positive market response to the tariffs could trigger growth toward 1.4400. A potential entry point is around 1.4328.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
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