Forex Analysis & Reviews: 04.04.2025 - What to Pay Attention to on...

04.04.2025 07:29 AM

What to Pay Attention to on April 4? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Analysis of Macroeconomic Reports:

Only a few macroeconomic events are scheduled for Friday, but they may trigger a new storm. The market has not yet recovered from Wednesday evening's events when Trump imposed trade tariffs on all countries worldwide. As a result, the dollar's decline may very well continue today on this factor alone. However, in the second half of the day, the U.S. will release the NonFarm Payrolls and unemployment rate reports. It goes without saying how important these reports are—especially if the actual figures deviate from forecasts. At this point, the dollar can only hope for a correction. If the data is weaker than expected, the market will eagerly continue selling off the U.S. currency.

Analysis of Fundamental Events:

There's no point in discussing anything other than Trump's trade tariffs. The dollar's decline may continue for several more days, and we recommend that traders pay attention to speeches from the leaders of major countries and alliances regarding retaliatory tariffs. Trump said that any response to his measures to "eliminate injustice" would be met harshly with new sanctions and tariffs. So, anyone who assumed that the tariffs introduced on Wednesday were final and their rates fixed is seriously mistaken. Lengthy and complex negotiations are about to begin with all the "sanctioned" countries that will not accept Trump's tariffs. Large players will now start implementing counter-tariffs. Today, we await a speech from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who will undoubtedly comment on the updated trade policy.

General Conclusions:

On the last trading day of the week, both currency pairs may continue to rise, as Trump has once again done everything to push the dollar lower. This is likely far from the last shock to hit the markets in 2025. The global trade architecture is transforming, and many changes in trade flows are expected. Numerous companies and governments will seek new markets, reorient their strategies, and form trade alliances and agreements. This will lead to a significant redistribution of financial and trade flows. And in the currency market, we may see more than one storm ahead.

Key Rules for the Trading System:

Signal Strength: The shorter the time it takes for a signal to form (a rebound or breakout), the stronger the signal.
False Signals: If two or more trades near a level result in false signals, subsequent signals from that level should be ignored.
Flat Markets: In flat conditions, pairs may generate many false signals or none at all. It's better to stop trading at the first signs of a flat market.
Trading Hours: Open trades between the start of the European session and the middle of the US session, then manually close all trades.
MACD Signals: On the hourly timeframe, trade MACD signals only during periods of good volatility and a clear trend confirmed by trendlines or trend channels.
Close Levels: If two levels are too close (5–20 pips apart), treat them as a support or resistance zone.
Stop Loss: Set a Stop Loss to breakeven after the price moves 15–20 pips in the desired direction.

Key Chart Elements:

Support and Resistance Levels: These are target levels for opening or closing positions and can also serve as points for placing Take Profit orders.

Red Lines: Channels or trendlines indicating the current trend and the preferred direction for trading.

MACD Indicator (14,22,3): A histogram and signal line used as a supplementary source of trading signals.

Important speeches and reports, which are consistently featured in the news calendar, can significantly influence the movement of a currency pair. Therefore, during their release, it is advisable to trade with caution or consider exiting the market to avoid potential sharp price reversals against the prior trend.

Beginners in the Forex market should understand that not every transaction will be profitable. Developing a clear trading strategy and practicing effective money management are crucial for achieving long-term success in trading.

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*Disclaimer: The market analysis posted here is meant to increase your awareness, but not to give instructions to make a trade.