In my morning forecast, I highlighted the 1.1485 level as a key decision point for market entry. Let's look at the 5-minute chart and examine what happened. The pair dipped and formed a false breakout around 1.1485, which provided a solid entry point for buying the euro, resulting in only a modest 20-point rise. The technical picture for the second half of the day remains largely unchanged.

To open long positions on EUR/USD:

During the U.S. session, speeches from FOMC members Philip N. Jefferson and Patrick T. Harker are expected, along with the release of the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index. Only exceptionally strong data can support the dollar. Otherwise, or if the Fed speakers adopt a dovish tone, the euro is likely to continue rising.

My plan is to buy lower, should the pair fall again. A false breakout near the 1.1485 support level would signal a buying opportunity in anticipation of a continuation of the bullish trend, aiming for a retest of 1.1571. A breakout and retest of this range from above would confirm the correct entry point for a move toward the 1.1624 area. The ultimate target will be 1.1674, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD declines and there's no buying activity around 1.1485—a level that has already held several times—pressure on the euro could increase, leading to a deeper correction. In that case, bears may push the pair down to 1.1412. Only after a false breakout forms there will I consider buying the euro. If it drops further, I will look to open long positions from the 1.1341 area, aiming for an intraday rebound of 30–35 points.

To open short positions on EUR/USD:

If the euro rises in the second half of the day, only a false breakout around 1.1571 would offer a reason to sell, targeting support at 1.1485, where the moving averages lie, acting as bullish support. A break and consolidation below this range, amid a lack of strong U.S. data, would provide a good selling opportunity with a move toward 1.1412. That would already be a strong correction. The final target is the 1.1341 area, where I plan to take profit.

If EUR/USD continues to climb and no bearish response is seen around 1.1571, buyers could drive the pair to a new yearly high. In that case, I will postpone short positions until a test of the next resistance at 1.1624. I will only sell there after a failed consolidation. If there's no downward movement there either, I will look to sell on a rebound from 1.1674, aiming for a 30–35 point intraday correction.

COT Report (Commitment of Traders) – April 15:

The COT report showed an increase in long positions and a decrease in short ones. Given that the European Union and the U.S. have yet to reach a trade agreement, the euro continues to strengthen while the dollar weakens. Potential market turmoil due to Trump's efforts to remove Jerome Powell from the Fed also exerts pressure on the dollar. Long non-commercial positions rose by 6,807 to 197,103 and short non-commercial positions fell by 2,493 to 127,823. The net long position widened by 2,493.

Indicator Signals:

Moving Averages: Trading is taking place near the 30- and 50-period moving averages, suggesting a possible decline in the pair.

Note: The moving averages and their prices are considered on the H1 timeframe by the author and may differ from the standard daily MAs on the D1 chart.

Bollinger Bands: In case of a decline, the lower band near 1.1485 will act as support.

Indicator Descriptions:

• Moving Average: Identifies the current trend by smoothing out volatility and noise. Period 50 (yellow line), Period 30 (green line)
• MACD (Moving Average Convergence/Divergence): Fast EMA – period 12; Slow EMA – period 26; SMA – period 9
• Bollinger Bands: Period – 20
• Non-commercial traders: Speculators such as individual traders, hedge funds, and large institutions who use the futures market for speculative purposes
• Long non-commercial positions: Total open long positions held by non-commercial traders
• Short non-commercial positions: Total open short positions held by non-commercial traders
• Net non-commercial position: Difference between long and short non-commercial positions