Trade Analysis and Tips for Trading the Euro

The price test at 1.1021 occurred when the MACD indicator started moving downward from the zero mark, confirming the correct entry point for selling euros. As a result, the pair plummeted by more than 25 pips. The data on Italy's retail sales and France's industrial production had no impact on the euro, while strong data from the U.S. labor market triggered a major sell-off, resulting in a drop below the psychological level of 1.1000. If buyers do not reclaim this level soon, it could spell trouble. Today, this could be aided by good data on industrial orders in Germany and retail sales in the Eurozone, as we should expect little from the Eurozone investor confidence indicator from Sentix. The speeches by European Central Bank Executive Board member Piero Cipollone and ECB Governing Council member Joachim Nagel are also unlikely to be interpreted as supportive of the euro. If there are no positive upward movements in the first half of the day, the euro will likely continue to decline. Regarding the intraday strategy, I will focus more on implementing scenarios No. 1 and No. 2.

Buy Signal

Scenario No. 1: Today, you can buy euros when the price reaches around 1.0983 (green line on the chart), with the target for growth to 1.1017. At point 1.1017, I plan to exit the market and also sell euros in the opposite direction, aiming for a movement of 30-35 pips from the entry point. Expect to see an increase in the euro today in the first half of the day only after strong data from the Eurozone. Important! Before buying, ensure that the MACD indicator is above the zero mark and is just beginning to rise.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to buy euros today if the price at 1.0963 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the oversold zone. This will limit the pair's downward potential and lead to a market reversal upward. You can expect growth to the opposing levels of 1.0983 and 1.1017.

Sell Signal

Scenario No. 1: I plan to sell euros after the price reaches the level of 1.0963 (red line on the chart). The target will be the level of 1.0923, where I intend to exit the market and buy immediately in the opposite direction (aiming for a movement of 20-25 pips in the opposite direction from the level). Pressure on the pair will return today in the case of a failed attempt to rise beyond the daily high and weak data from the Eurozone. Important! Before selling, ensure that the MACD indicator is below the zero mark and is just beginning to decline.

Scenario No. 2: I also plan to sell euros today if the price at 1.0983 is tested twice consecutively when the MACD indicator is in the overbought zone. This will limit the pair's upward potential and lead to a market reversal downward. You can expect a decrease to the opposing levels of 1.0963 and 1.0923.

What's on the Chart:

Thin green line: Entry price at which you can buy the trading instrument.

Thick green line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further growth above this level is unlikely.

Thin red line: Entry price at which you can sell the trading instrument.

Thick red line: The anticipated price where you can set Take Profit or manually lock in profits, as further decline below this level is unlikely.

MACD Indicator: When entering the market, it is important to be guided by overbought and oversold zones.

Important: Novice traders in the forex market should be cautious when making market entry decisions. It is best to stay out of the market before the release of important fundamental reports to avoid sudden exchange rate fluctuations. If you decide to trade during news releases, always set stop orders to minimize losses. You can quickly lose your entire deposit without stop orders, especially if you do not use money management and trade in large volumes.

And remember, for successful trading, you need to have a clear trading plan, like the one presented above. Spontaneous trading decisions based on the current market situation are initially a losing strategy for an intraday trader.