Analisis Forex & Kajian: 28.06.2019 - The euro is waiting for the...

28.06.2019 03:49 PM

The euro is waiting for the steepest drop in 17 months and the dollar is firmly on its feet

The euro is on its way to the biggest monthly losses in 17 months, as traders doubt whether the ECB will have enough firepower to support a weakening economy and boost inflation. The June data is expected to show inflation in the eurozone at 1.2%, well below the ECB target. The regulator has promised to increase incentives if necessary, but some investors are skeptical. "The space for the ECB to soften its policy is much more limited than that of the Fed, and this is putting pressure on the euro," Commerzbank believes.

As traders doubt whether the ECB will have enough firepower to support a weakening economy and boost inflation, the euro is on its way to the biggest monthly losses in 17 months. The June data is expected to show inflation in the eurozone at 1.2%, well below the ECB target. Some investors are skeptical and the regulator has promised to increase incentives if necessary.

Although inflation expectations in recent weeks have declined in both the US and Europe, US indicators stabilized after the Fed last week "opened the door" to lower rates. Interest rates in Europe are already negative. In relation to the dollar, the single currency lost almost 1.6 percent over the month, which was the largest monthly decline, even if it stabilized at around $1.1384. The dollar against the yen is trading at 107.66 yen and the rate has changed little over the last day. But this week, the American added 0.3 percent and rebounded from a five-month low then reaching 106.77 yen on Tuesday.

Markets also hope that the meeting between US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping at the G20 summit will move the process of signing a trade agreement from the dead center. However, as practice shows, negotiations between the two largest economies in the world have not yielded results for a long time. Traders and analysts warn that even if a resolution is signed during the summit, it will be more a kind of formality than the real end of a trade war.

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Irina Maksimova,
Pakar analisis InstaForex
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