Analisis Forex & Kajian: 08.09.2023 - XAU/USD: Where will the...

08.09.2023 03:11 PM

XAU/USD: Where will the pendulum swing?

"If stronger economic activity continues, it could lead to a resurgence in inflation," said Lorie Logan, the head of the Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, on Thursday, adding that the strength of the labor market indicates that "we [the Fed] haven't finished the job of restoring price stability."

These important statements from the Fed representative came after positive macroeconomic data from the United States was published. For example, on Thursday, the U.S. Department of Labor released its weekly report stating that, for the reporting week (as of September 1), the number of initial jobless claims dropped to 216,000 (from 229,000 the previous week, with a forecast of 234,000), while continuing claims (for the week of August 25) fell to 1.679 million (from 1.719 million the previous week, with a forecast of 1.715 million).

Additionally, labor costs per unit of labor (in the 2nd quarter) were revised upward to +2.2% from the initial estimate of +1.6%, which is also a kind of leading indicator for consumer inflation in the medium term.

Furthermore, data published on Wednesday reflected growth in the August ISM Business Activity Index in the U.S. service sector (from the Institute for Supply Management) - reaching 54.5 (compared to 52.7 in July and a forecast of 52.5) after 53.9 in June, 50.3 in May, 51.9 in April, 51.2 in March, 55.1 in February, and 55.2 in January 2023. The U.S. service sector employs a significant portion of the country's population and contributes more to GDP than the manufacturing sector (78% versus 21% from the manufacturing sector and 1% from agriculture).

Positive macroeconomic statistics increase the chances of the U.S. economy avoiding a recession, while the Federal Reserve may still decide to further raise interest rates to continue the fight against high inflation.

Meanwhile, unemployment in the U.S. remains at pre-pandemic lows (3.8% in August), and average hourly wages continue to rise (+0.2% after increases of +0.4% in July and June, +0.3% in May, +0.5% in April, +0.3% in March, +0.2% in February, and +0.3% in January 2023), creating conditions for consumer inflation growth.

This, combined with positive GDP dynamics, is a bullish factor for the dollar as it prompts the country's central bank to adhere to a tight monetary policy.

Now, market participants, with a probability of about 43%, according to CME Group data, expect the Fed to raise its interest rate by 0.25% in November, although in September, it "may be appropriate" for the U.S. central bank to skip a rate hike, as Logan believes.

The high level of investor confidence that the Fed will maintain a hawkish stance and keep interest rates high for an extended period provides support to the U.S. dollar while limiting more active growth of its competitor among safe-haven assets—gold. As is known, gold prices are quite sensitive to changes in the credit and monetary policies of major central banks, especially the Fed.

Thus, on Thursday, the DXY index reached its highest level since March 3 at 105.12, rising for the eighth consecutive week and maintaining a positive trend.

At the same time, the XAU/USD pair, after breaking through important support levels of 1927.50 and 1926.50 earlier in the week, entered a short-term bear market zone.

A more successful attempt to break through important support levels at 1909.00, 1900.00, and 1896.00 and further decline will lead XAU/USD into a medium-term bear market zone.

However, in conditions of sustained high inflation, ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, concerns about a global economic downturn, and deteriorating relations between the U.S. and China, demand for gold will also be supported.

Therefore, gold buyers and the XAU/USD pair could expect a resumption of their price growth near the support levels of 1909.00 and 1900.00.

Next week (Wednesday), fresh inflation data for the U.S. will be published.

If they once again indicate a resurgence in inflation (U.S. year-on-year inflation in July increased to +3.2% from +3.0% in June, although slightly below the forecast of +3.3%), this will prompt the Fed to, at the very least, keep interest rates at high levels, and at most, continue to raise them. This is undoubtedly a bullish fundamental factor for the dollar and a bearish one for U.S. stock indices and gold.

On Thursday, the ECB will make its decision on interest rates. If it also decides on another rate hike while maintaining a hawkish rhetoric regarding the prospects of its monetary policy, then gold prices will come under additional pressure.

Anda telah pun menyukai siaran hari ini

* Analisis pasaran yang disiarkan di sini adalah bertujuan untuk meningkatkan kesedaran anda, tetapi tidak untuk memberi arahan untuk membuat perdagangan.

Jika anda mempunyai sebarang soalan berkaitan kandungan, sila hubungi editorial-board@instaforex.com

Fundamental analysis

Lebih banyak artikel daripada pengarang ini

Langganan E-mel

EURUSD

Euro vs US Dollar

Pilih carta masa

min

jam

hari

minggu

Mulakan dagangan

Jana pendapatan melalui perubahan kadar mata wang kripto dengan InstaForex.

Muat turun MetaTrader 4 dan buka dagangan pertama anda.

Artikel yang dicadangkan

EUR/GBP. Analisis dan Ramalan

Keputusan Pusingan Kedua Rundingan Amerika Syarikat–China

Amerika Syarikat dan China: Satu Langkah Kecil ke Hadapan. Apa Seterusnya? (Berpotensi untuk Pembalikan dan Penurunan dalam Pasangan EUR/USD dan NZD/USD)

Pasaran Menghampiri Garisan Rubicon

Apakah yang Perlu Diberi Perhatian pada 11 Jun? Ulasan Peristiwa Fundamental untuk Pedagang Baharu

Gambaran Keseluruhan Pasangan GBP/USD – 11 Jun. Apakah yang Akan Dipengaruhi oleh Inflasi?

Gambaran Keseluruhan EUR/USD – 11 Jun: Berita Tentang Rundingan Pun Tidak Membantu Dolar

Jepun Berharap Rundingan Perdagangan Berakhir dengan Keputusan Positif — Jika Gagal, Kemelesetan dan Inflasi Tinggi Mungkin Menjelma

GBP/USD: Pasaran Buruh Mula Perlahan, Namun Pound Kekal Kukuh

Dolar Ditakdirkan Jatuh, Walaupun Ia Belum Menyedarinya

Analisis terbaik