empty
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
InstaForex Loprais Team - Official participant of the Dakar rally
This section is designed for those who are just starting their trading journey. InstaForex educational and analytical materials will meet your training needs. Our experts' recommendations will make your first steps to trading success simple and clear.
Start as Beginner
How to start trading
Useful information
Training and recordings
InstaForex innovative services are an essential element of productive investment. We strive to provide our clients with advanced technical capabilities and make their trading routine comfortable as we are recognized as the best broker in this regard.
Become Investor
PAMM System
ForexCopy System
Passive investments
Partnership with InstaForex is beneficial and top-tier. Join our affiliate programs and enjoy bonuses, partner rewards, and the possibility to travel with the team of the world-renowned brand.
Become Partner
Main Page
Partner Area
Advantages for Affiliates
Registration
This section contains the most lucrative offers from InstaForex. Receive bonuses when topping up an account, compete with other traders, and get real prizes even when trading in a demo account.
All Promo Campaigns
Bonuses
Contests
Events
Holidays with InstaForex are not only pleasant but also useful. We offer a one-stop portal, numerous forums, and corporate blogs, where traders can exchange experiences and become successfully integrated into the Forex community.
Full details
Forums
We are in social networks
Forex humour
Forex Portal
InstaForex is an international brand created in 2007. The company provides services for online FX trading and is recognized as one of the world's leading brokers. We have won the trust of more than 7,000,000 retail traders, who have already appreciated our reliability and focus on innovations.
Learn More
History
Why Choose Us
InstaSport
Regulation
Company News
Awards
InstaForex Stars
InstaForex Offline
Headquarters
Key documents
Social Responsibility
02.04.2025 09:51 AM
Markets May React to New U.S. Tariffs with Growth—But Under One Condition... (GBP/USD Downside and USD/CAD Upside Possible)
Open trading account Open demo account

The day Donald Trump declared "Liberation Day" has arrived. Markets are bracing for the U.S. to introduce comprehensive and large-scale tariffs on its trade partners and potential retaliatory measures from those countries.

The White House has stated that the new tariffs will be implemented immediately. How prepared are financial markets for this?

Let's begin with the stock markets. U.S., European, and Asian indices have recently been trading sideways, under pressure from the looming decision by the U.S. to impose high and far-reaching tariffs on virtually all imported goods. While markets have already priced in much of this news, it's still unclear whether this move will trigger a major rally—given that investors often act in advance—or if we'll see a broad sell-off instead.

The Cryptocurrency Market

This is an entirely separate story, primarily disconnected from reality, as these assets lack intrinsic value. Their rises and falls are driven mainly by speculative market sentiment around global events. Overall, market sentiment—whether positive or negative—is key for crypto.

The Forex Market

Here, things are also relatively "dull." The U.S. dollar has remained stable for four straight weeks against a basket of major currencies amid expectations surrounding Trump's new tariff plans. Uncertainty over how the 47th president will act and what the impact on the U.S. economy will be—particularly the government debt market, which heavily influences dollar movement—continues to dominate sentiment.

Commodities have also been moving sideways overall. Participants are responding to key OPEC+ developments and geopolitical events while reacting to the U.S. president's constantly shifting rhetoric.

An interesting point is that market participants have recently been ignoring major economic data releases in the U.S. and other key global regions. Even today, the focus will be on the ADP private-sector employment report from the U.S.

Will it significantly influence the dollar and U.S. stock markets?

According to the consensus forecast, the ADP figure is expected to jump to 118,000 in March, up from 77,000 in February. That would typically be a strong signal for the dollar and U.S. equities. However, given today's focus on tariffs, the main event overshadows all reports—even important ones—. Nonetheless, the improved U.S. labor market data will not go unnoticed by investors. If they don't hear anything new or negative regarding tariffs, investors may react by buying risk assets and the dollar—driven by relief and clarity over the future trajectory of the U.S. and global economy.

I believe there is a strong chance of a positive outcome, especially if Trump doesn't announce anything new if the actual tariffs are slightly lower than anticipated—something that remains possible—or if they align with previously presented plans.

This image is no longer relevant

This image is no longer relevant

Forecast of the Day

GBP/USD

The pair has been trading sideways since the start of the month, reflecting trader uncertainty about the impact of Trump's new tariffs. However, today, there's a chance the dollar could receive support, potentially pushing the pair out of its range and down toward 1.2780. A potential entry point is around 1.2895.

USD/CAD

This pair is also in a sideways range. A positive market response to the tariffs could trigger growth toward 1.4400. A potential entry point is around 1.4328.

Pati Gani,
Analytical expert of InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Select timeframe
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hour
4
hours
1
day
1
week
Earn on cryptocurrency rate changes with InstaForex
Download MetaTrader 4 and open your first trade
All Analytics
Fundamental analysis
USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. In addition, concerns
Irina Yanina
13:09 2025-06-13 +02:00
1555
Fundamental analysis
AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast The AUD/JPY pair has been under selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching an almost two-week low around 92.30 during Friday's Asian session. After a sharp drop, spot prices
Irina Yanina
12:53 2025-06-13 +02:00
1360
Breaking Forecast Trading Plan Cryptocurrencies USD/RUB Russian Economy Video Analysis
Trading Instruments
EURUSD GBPUSD USDCHF USDCAD USDJPY AUDUSD EURGBP EURJPY NZDUSD EURNZD Silver Gold #CL #USDX COVID-19 Bitcoin
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    JOIN CONTEST

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Analysis and Forecast

The USD/CAD pair is showing a modest recovery from levels below 1.3600, retracing most of the previous day's losses, supported by a rebound in the U.S. dollar. In addition, concerns
Irina Yanina 13:09 2025-06-13 UTC+2

AUD/JPY. Analysis and Forecast

The AUD/JPY pair has been under selling pressure for the third consecutive day, reaching an almost two-week low around 92.30 during Friday's Asian session. After a sharp drop, spot prices
Irina Yanina 12:53 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Israeli Missile Strike on Iran Will Crash Global Markets (I Expect Bitcoin and #NDX to Resume Their Decline After a Local Upward Correction)

As I anticipated, the lack of a broad positive outcome in negotiations between China and the U.S. and renewed inflationary pressure led to a sharp decline in demand for corporate
Pati Gani 10:10 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Greed Will Do the Market No Good

The less you know, the better you sleep. Encouraged by a 21% rally in the S&P 500 from its April lows, the crowd continues to buy the dip—completely unbothered
Marek Petkovich 09:35 2025-06-13 UTC+2

What to Pay Attention to on June 13? A Breakdown of Fundamental Events for Beginners

Several macroeconomic reports are scheduled for Friday, but we doubt that the data will significantly impact traders today—especially today. As a reminder, Donald Trump intends to raise tariffs
Paolo Greco 07:16 2025-06-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD Overview – June 13: The Court Won't Stop Donald Trump!

The GBP/USD currency pair continued its upward movement on Thursday and nearly updated its three-year high. For most of the day, quotes hovered around the 1.36 level
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

EUR/USD Overview – June 13: America's Economy Gets Lucky

The EUR/USD currency pair continued its strong upward movement throughout Thursday. Is anyone still puzzled as to why the U.S. dollar keeps falling? From our point of view, the reasons
Paolo Greco 03:41 2025-06-13 UTC+2

Trump Sends Out "Letters of Happiness"

It has been less than two weeks since Donald Trump raised import tariffs on steel and aluminum for all countries except the UK. While negotiations with the UK were deemed
Chin Zhao 00:21 2025-06-13 UTC+2

GBP/USD. A Weak Pound Stronger Than a Weak Greenback

Following weak UK labor market data, equally soft figures on British economic growth were released on Thursday. Almost all components of the report came out in the "red zone," increasing
Irina Manzenko 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2

The Dollar Flees the Battlefield

The old becomes new again. The word "recession" again trended in the Forex and other financial markets. May's U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) fell short of Bloomberg analysts' forecasts. Following
Marek Petkovich 00:20 2025-06-13 UTC+2
Can't speak right now?
Ask your question in the chat.
Widget callback
Callback widget
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.