empty
27.03.2022 12:44 AM
JPMorgan advises to sell: Western analysts on Russia and other emerging markets

On Friday, JPMorgan analysts turned to Wall Street traders, focusing on recommendations to sell or "underestimate" the sovereign debt of emerging markets in national currency in connection with the global consequences of the Russian-Ukrainian crisis.

JPMorgan advises selling: Western analysts on Russia and other emerging markets

This image is no longer relevant

JPMorgan estimates that fixed income assets in emerging markets have lost 6-9% of their value since the Russian-Ukrainian conflict began a month ago. Nervousness about the war and its impact on world energy and food prices is not in vain, adding to the overall negative situation.

Now a number of leading central banks in developing countries are signaling that interest rates should rise faster than previously expected. And they are growing. However, this in turn increases concerns about the almost inevitable stagflation in this case, when high inflation and rising interest rates undermine economic growth on both sides.

"A month of war accelerated the existing trends and revealed vulnerabilities," JPMorgan analysts said in a note published on Thursday.

Analysts also spoke about other countries. They noted the increase in rates by the US Federal Reserve and central banks of developing countries: JPMorgan in this regard stated that "it makes sense to take advantage of the recent decline" in the yield of government bonds in national currency compared to US treasury bonds to enter a "lower weight" position in developing countries.

According to experts, major metal exporting countries such as South Africa, Chile and Peru may still do well, but fixed income assets in emerging markets as a whole are now facing a more "stagflationary" trajectory.

What Moscow called a "special military operation" in Ukraine also exacerbated an already slow start to the year for the sale of sovereign bonds of developing countries.

Total issuance since the beginning of the year is one of the lowest ever, so JPMorgan predicts that bond issuance in emerging markets will now be significantly lower than in previous years, and will amount to only $142 billion in 2022.

"This risk-averse environment has also increased the cost for those countries that are trying to issue hard currency bonds," the bank's analysts added.

Some countries that are most vulnerable to rising energy and food prices also have to apply "crisis" scenarios, which hinders the growth of consumption within these countries, forcing them to restrict imports from developing countries.

This was evident this week when Egypt devalued its currency by 15%, turning to the International Monetary Fund for additional support. Sri Lanka has also overcome long-standing resistance to IMF aid, and Tunisia is negotiating.

"As a result, the medium-term investment prospects for these countries look more challenging," JPMorgan said.

It seems that the dollar has also benefited from the global geopolitical situation this time, but this is not so good considering the growth of imports in the US trade balance.

Egor Danilov,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

Wall Street sobe: Nasdaq sobe 2,74% com as ações de tecnologia impulsionando o mercado

As ações da Procter & Gamble e a PepsiCo caíram após cortarem suas previsões, enquanto a Hasbro e a ServiceNow subiram após seus relatórios de lucros. Os pedidos de bens

17:57 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 25 de abril

Os índices de ações dos EUA encerraram a terceira sessão consecutiva em alta, impulsionados por uma forte recuperação no setor de tecnologia. O Nasdaq avançou 2,74%, impulsionado por sólidos resultados

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:43 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Wall Street em alta: Nasdaq sobe 2,74%, tecnologia lidera alta do mercado

Procter & Gamble e PepsiCo caem após cortes nas previsões Hasbro e ServiceNow saltam após resultados Bens duráveis de março saltam mais do que o esperado Alphabet supera as estimativas

Thomas Frank 16:26 2025-04-25 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 24 de abril

Os principais índices de ações dos EUA, como o S&P 500 e o Nasdaq 100, registraram ganhos sólidos impulsionados pelo otimismo em relação ao avanço das negociações comerciais. Apesar

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:07 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Sequência de lucros: de tênis Adidas a jatos da Boeing, balanços trimestrais impulsionam os mercados

Índices subiram: Dow 1,07%, S&P 500 1,67%, Nasdaq 2,50% Bessent diz que as tarifas entre EUA e China são insustentáveis e que Trump está aberto a negociações Tesla e Boeing

Thomas Frank 14:43 2025-04-24 UTC+2

Trump diz que os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se fortalece, China aguarda resultado

Nikkei salta mais de 2%, futuros do S&P 500 continuam em alta Dólar salta quando Trump diz que não tem planos de demitir Powell Esperanças de redução das tarifas

Thomas Frank 18:07 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 23 de abril

O mercado americano volta a dar sinais de instabilidade. Apesar de sinais promissores indicando uma possível trégua na guerra comercial com a China, o mercado dos Estados Unidos continua marcado

Ekaterina Kiseleva 15:06 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Trump age, os mercados reagem: Nikkei sobe 2%, dólar se recupera

O Nikkei subiu mais de 2%, os futuros do S&P 500 estenderam sua alta e o dólar deu um salto depois que o presidente dos EUA, Donald Trump, disse

14:54 2025-04-23 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 22 de abril

O S&P 500 e o Nasdaq 100 continuam a cair, à medida que crescem as preocupações com a desaceleração do crescimento econômico e o impacto das tarifas comerciais, que pesam

Ekaterina Kiseleva 17:33 2025-04-22 UTC+2

Resumo de notícias do mercado dos EUA para 21 de abril

O S&P 500 e o Nasdaq caíram novamente após os ataques de Donald Trump ao Federal Reserve. Seus comentários questionaram a independência do banco central, ampliando as preocupações

Ekaterina Kiseleva 15:46 2025-04-21 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.