empty
13.06.2024 12:28 AM
A decline in US inflation will allow the yen to initiate a bearish USD/JPY reversal

The US Consumer Price Index declined to 3.3% on a yearly basis in May from 3.4% in April, while the core index fell even more sharply from 3.6% to 3.4%. The slowdown in inflation completely offset the effect of the strong labor market. The bond market responded with a sharp decline in yields, and the likelihood of the first Federal Reserve rate cut in September has risen significantly.

This image is no longer relevant

The Federal Reserve held its meeting on Wednesday. The interest rate was expected to remain unchanged, but economic forecasts and the rate trajectory were highly likely to be revised. This signals a potential weakness for the US dollar, and we expected volatility to spike following the meeting.

The Bank of Japan will hold its meeting on Friday. A 0.1% rate hike is not expected, but the Bank may announce a program to reduce bond purchases. Such a decision would be the BOJ's first clear step towards quantitative tightening after abandoning the large-scale stimulus program in March and it could be the start to policy normalization. Although the Bank states that it does not target foreign exchange rates, a change in the bond purchase regime or a clear hawkish signal would work in favor of the yen's growth.

Forecasts vary widely. If the BOJ is too cautious, the yen may weaken further and head towards the 160 level, where intervention to prevent further depreciation would likely occur. If the measures are aggressive, bond yields will rise sharply, complicating the government's ability to service its accumulated obligations.

The net short JPY position decreased by $1.75 billion to -$10.6 billion, indicating that positioning remains strongly bearish but a trend reversal is emerging. However, the price is not falling, suggesting that conditions for a bullish bias on the yen have not yet materialized.

This image is no longer relevant

USD/JPY is trying to resume its uptrend, which happens whenever the BOJ avoids providing specific details about its future course of actions. Japanese bond yields declined amidst growing uncertainty regarding the BOJ's plans. The substantial yield differential objectively forces the use of the Japanese currency in carry trade transactions, and this will continue until the BOJ decides to proceed with raising its rate.

Nevertheless, we believe that buying USD/JPY is too risky due to the high probability of another currency intervention. Therefore, we adhere to the same strategy – sell on rallies. If the pair rises above 159, the threat of intervention will increase significantly. While the pair remains below this level, local bullish impulses are possible.

Kuvat Raharjo,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

Na segunda-feira, o par USD/CAD avançou pelo segundo dia consecutivo, impulsionado por vários fatores. Os preços do petróleo bruto recuaram inicialmente após a decisão inesperada da OPEP+ de aumentar

Irina Yanina 15:16 2025-07-07 UTC+2

GBP/USD. Análise e previsão

O par GBP/USD começou a nova semana tentando manter o nível psicológico chave de 1,3600. No entanto, em meio a fatores fundamentais mistos, até agora não teve sucesso. A libra

Irina Yanina 14:57 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Visão geral do GBP/USD em 7 de julho de 2025

O par GBP/USD ficou praticamente estável durante toda a sexta-feira, já que a sessão nos EUA esteve praticamente parada por conta do feriado. Sem indicadores macroeconômicos relevantes, o mercado preferiu

Paolo Greco 14:41 2025-07-07 UTC+2

Visão geral do EUR/USD em 7 de julho de 2025

O par EUR/USD permaneceu praticamente estável durante toda a sexta-feira. Essa falta de movimento tem uma explicação simples: foi feriado de Independência nos Estados Unidos, e os mercados americanos estiveram

Paolo Greco 14:20 2025-07-07 UTC+2

USD/JPY. Análise e previsão

O par USD/JPY permanece acima do importante nível de 144,00, em meio à fraqueza contínua do dólar americano. Dados sólidos de gastos das famílias divulgados hoje no Japão reforçaram expectativas

Irina Yanina 18:25 2025-07-04 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Análise e previsão

O par NZD/USD está se recuperando após saltar do nível 0,6030, que marca uma mínima semanal, e está tentando ganhar mais impulso positivo. Isso sugere uma quebra na sequência

Irina Yanina 18:21 2025-07-04 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

Na sexta-feira, o USD/CAD permanece próximo de uma baixa de três semanas, sendo negociado abaixo do nível-chave de 1,3600. O dólar norte-americano está com dificuldades para estender seus ganhos após

Irina Yanina 18:18 2025-07-04 UTC+2

Relatório positivo sobre o emprego nos EUA supera todas as expectativas

O dólar americano subiu em relação a uma série de ativos de risco, uma vez que os números-chave do relatório de emprego de junho convenceram a Reserva Federal

Jakub Novak 16:43 2025-07-04 UTC+2

O mercado comemora uma vitória

Os mercados financeiros reagiram de forma positiva aos dados de emprego divulgados ontem nos Estados Unidos, referentes ao mês de junho. As folhas de pagamento cresceram em 143 mil vagas

Marek Petkovich 16:37 2025-07-04 UTC+2

A próxima semana pode começar com uma nota positiva para os mercados (possível retomada do crescimento no #SPX e no #NDX)

Os dados divulgados ontem pelo Departamento do Trabalho dos Estados Unidos trouxeram um tom de otimismo — ainda que cauteloso — para os investidores. As bolsas americanas estenderam seus ganhos

Pati Gani 16:29 2025-07-04 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.