empty
15.01.2025 12:55 AM
The Euro Sees Light at the End of the Tunnel

The dollar is often viewed as the currency of pessimists, gaining strength during uncertain times for the global economy. Recent tariff threats from Donald Trump have contributed to a bleak outlook for global GDP. While many may consider retaliatory measures, a large-scale trade war would likely be detrimental to riskier assets. However, as rumors of a phased implementation of tariffs began to circulate in the Forex market, investors transitioned from a stance of pessimism to one of moderate optimism.

According to Donald Trump's team, headed by Scott Bessent, tariffs ranging from 2% to 5% are not expected to significantly accelerate inflation or impede the growth of foreign economies. Other countries may hesitate to retaliate, particularly since the U.S. could choose to increase tariffs further. This phased approach suggests that the gap in GDP growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone may not be as large as initially thought. This factor could, at the very least, slow down the EUR/USD bears.

Dynamics and Forecasts for the U.S., UK, and Eurozone Economies

This image is no longer relevant

The issue at hand is the unpredictability of Donald Trump's actions. Will he deny Bloomberg's insider report, as he did with The Washington Post's article based on informed sources a week prior? The Republican president is known for making last-minute reversals and often chooses to disregard advice rather than follow it, leading to uncertainty about the details of the initial tariff package. Consequently, market sentiment could quickly shift from moderate optimism to pessimism, which would bolster the U.S. dollar.

Additionally, EUR/USD bears are supported not only by the divergence in economic growth between the U.S. and the Eurozone but also by the differences in their monetary policy trajectories. U.S. inflation is rising, even in the absence of tariffs and fiscal stimulus from Donald Trump, as indicated by Bloomberg's December Consumer Price Index (CPI) forecasts and increasing inflation expectations. The futures market suggests that the Federal Reserve is unlikely to cut the federal funds rate until October.

U.S. Inflation Expectations Dynamics

This image is no longer relevant

European Central Bank Chief Economist Philip Lane is expressing significant concern about the potential return of deflation in the Eurozone. He stresses the importance of continuing the monetary expansion cycle as quickly as possible. Meanwhile, other ECB officials anticipate that borrowing costs will reach a neutral level of 2%—a rate that neither stimulates nor constrains the economy—by May.

This image is no longer relevant

By summer, the interest rate differential between the Fed and the ECB could widen from the current 150 basis points to 250 basis points. This shift may drive the EUR/USD exchange rate below parity.

From a technical perspective on the EUR/USD daily chart, the appearance of a pin bar with a long lower shadow suggests a potential bullish counterattack. However, for this to materialize, bulls need to maintain control over the lower boundary of the fair value range, which is between 1.025 and 1.044. If they succeed, it may justify short-term buying. If not, selling the euro remains the more prudent strategy.

Marek Petkovich,
Especialista em análise na InstaForex
© 2007-2025
Selecionar intervalo de tempo
5
min
15
min
30
min
1
hora
4
horas
1
dia
1
s.
Ganhe com as variações das taxas das criptomoedas com a InstaForex.
Baixe o MetaTrader 4 e abra a sua primeira operação.
  • Grand Choice
    Contest by
    InstaForex
    InstaForex always strives to help you
    fulfill your biggest dreams.
    PARTICIPE DO CONCURSO

Recommended Stories

XAU/USD. Análise e previsão

A queda dos preços do ouro abaixo do patamar de $3.300 desencadeou uma onda de fraqueza, com o metal precioso enfrentando dificuldades para recuperar impulso. O sentimento global de apetite

Irina Yanina 20:30 2025-05-29 UTC+2

A oposição a Trump nos EUA se intensifica (potencial para crescimento contínuo da #SPX e da #NDX)

A oposição interna a Donald Trump está ganhando força, o que pode ser uma surpresa desagradável para o ex-presidente. Esse desenvolvimento pode limitar seus esforços para remodelar o cenário econômico

Pati Gani 17:58 2025-05-29 UTC+2

Decisão judicial sobre tarifas alimenta novas incertezas no mercado

O que é a vida, senão um jogo? Os mercados, como crianças, mal aprendem as regras de um jogo e já são apresentados a outro. Em 2024, os investidores estavam

Marek Petkovich 14:34 2025-05-29 UTC+2

O euro está se precipitando

Após uma forte alta entre fevereiro e abril, o par EUR/USD entrou em uma fase prolongada de consolidação. Há várias semanas, a principal dupla cambial permanece confinada dentro da faixa

Marek Petkovich 20:35 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Por que as moedas negociadas em relação ao dólar não estão caindo? (Há uma chance de o EUR/USD retomar o crescimento e o USD/JPY cair)

Estamos realmente vivendo um período atípico, no qual os princípios clássicos de avaliação das condições de mercado estão sendo deixados de lado em favor de fatores mais urgentes e, mais

Pati Gani 18:10 2025-05-28 UTC+2

Condições de mercado favorecem o dólar

Ontem, o dólar americano continuou a se fortalecer em relação a uma série de ativos de risco, avançando particularmente em relação ao euro e à libra esterlina. Os fortes dados

Jakub Novak 17:44 2025-05-28 UTC+2

O mercado deixou para trás o que era ruim

A história se repete. Os mercados respiraram aliviados e aproveitaram a correção do S&P 500 para comprar, após as ameaças de Donald Trump de impor tarifas de 50% sobre

Marek Petkovich 17:31 2025-05-28 UTC+2

NZD/USD. Reunião do RBNZ em maio: prévia

O Banco Central da Nova Zelândia (RBNZ) divulgará os resultados de sua próxima reunião de política monetária em 28 de maio. A maioria dos analistas espera que o banco reduza

Irina Manzenko 16:49 2025-05-28 UTC+2

AUD/NZD. Análise e previsão

O par AUD/NZD tentou atrair compradores durante o recuo, mas até agora não houve convicção suficiente para sustentar um movimento de alta. O ímpeto altista intradiário perdeu força após

Irina Yanina 16:28 2025-05-28 UTC+2

USD/CAD. Análise e previsão

O par USD/CAD vem se recuperando pelo terceiro dia consecutivo desde o nível mais baixo deste ano, apoiado pelo renovado interesse de compra pelo dólar americano. Os dados econômicos otimistas

Irina Yanina 14:33 2025-05-28 UTC+2
Não pode falar agora?
Faça sua pergunta no chat.
Widget callback
 

Dear visitor,

Your IP address shows that you are currently located in the USA. If you are a resident of the United States, you are prohibited from using the services of InstaFintech Group including online trading, online transfers, deposit/withdrawal of funds, etc.

If you think you are seeing this message by mistake and your location is not the US, kindly proceed to the website. Otherwise, you must leave the website in order to comply with government restrictions.

Why does your IP address show your location as the USA?

  • - you are using a VPN provided by a hosting company based in the United States;
  • - your IP does not have proper WHOIS records;
  • - an error occurred in the WHOIS geolocation database.

Please confirm whether you are a US resident or not by clicking the relevant button below. If you choose the wrong option, being a US resident, you will not be able to open an account with InstaForex anyway.

We are sorry for any inconvenience caused by this message.